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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement wins the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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