Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
