A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
